Will the 2012 Presidential election be about “change” or do no harm?

Today President Obama announced his intention to seek re-election in 2012. Though this comes as no surprise, market research firms will probably get the polling wrong. Pundits and pollsters alike have been saying that the Republicans lack any clear front-runners or decisive credible challengers to Mr. Obama. This may indeed be true, though it does seem early to make that claim, but what is the Presidential election of 2012 really about anyway?

In our polling most respondents feel that neither the President nor any member of Congress is truly representing their best interests regardless of party affiliation. You may recall that Mr. Obama was swept into office under the banner of “change you can believe in.” As a student of politics, people and news events, I believe that people are more likely to elect or re-elect the person that promises to do less than more.

Assuming that I am correct, sadly most market research firms will miss this. Instead they will concentrate on the big claims and promises and miss what matters most to the people who are seeking to keep their jobs, secure a job, stay in their homes, find ways to pay for gas and groceries, and to pay for/keep their kids in college.

What’s your take? I would love to hear your opinion.